Climate Analogues - finding tomorrow's climate today
This new web application allows users to explore climate change – from historical data to future projections – by analysing real locations with similar climates today that selected locations could have in the future. It provides an understanding of the consequences of climate change and the central role played by the mitigation of emissions.
Climate change affects the entire world and every sector. Although the climate is already changing, in many places of the world, the most severe changes are still to occur. There are numerous climate projection models that describe possible future climate evolutions. However, the scientifically anticipated changes remain abstract and the possible scenarios are not immediately understood by everyone. There is a clear perception gap between what models predict and the actual impact of climate change on everyday life. Climate Analogues is a tool that aims to close this perception gap by making climate change more perceivable
Climate Analogues was developed in collaboration with Meteotest and on a project commissioned by the CopernicusClimate Change Service (C3S) to show how data from their Climate Data Store (CDS) can be used to address key climate challenges in various sectors. C3S, for its part, is implemented by ECMWF on behalf of the European Commission. While Meteotest took care of the processing of the climate data, afca. designed the user experience and programmed the frontend. The application relies on easy-to-understand documentation and intuitive user guidance. For quick readability of the climate variables, they were illustrated using common symbols from everyday life. The tool is primarily addressed to the educational sector and to non-experts in the environmental field in general.
After entering a location in the search box, the tool shows on a map three other locations to which it could have a comparable climate in the future according to certain emissionscenarios (RCPs). The result is based on CMIP5 daily climate model data from CDS and includes precipitation, snowfall, humidity, and air temperature. ERA5 reanalysis data from CDS was used to downscale and correct climate models to 0.25x0.25°C. Meteotest has evaluated and processed the CMIP5 data and programmed an API that provides the three most similar locations according to their climate profile. Euclidean distances are used to determine the analogues, which are then finally displayed in the application. The user can also choose between three different time periods for which year the comparison should be calculated (2050, 2070 and 2090).